“With strong recent and projected growth in supply of NGLs from the United States, and with flat to declining demand for propane in Michigan, the prospect of persistent propane supply shortages in Michigan is unlikely, even if Enbridge Line 5 ceased to operate,” LEI stated in the report.
The Assessment of alternative methods of supply propane to Michigan in the absence of Line 5 found that trucking could supply the raw materials for propane to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula with minor price impacts ($.05/gallon), so long as the industry has the lead time needed to develop and implement the trucking-based supply chain.
Michigan’s crude oil production: Alternatives to Enbridge Energy Line 5 found that the small volume of crude oil production that utilizes Line 5 to get to market could utilize trucking directly as a feasible alternative. If Line 5 were decommissioned, this oil could be in higher demand and, therefore, the projected small cost increase ($1.31/barrel) would likely not impact profitability for Michigan crude oil producers.
“The cost increase from using alternatives to Enbridge Line 5 would be lost in the noise of typical crude oil price volatility,” wrote London Economics International. “The impact on the profitability of Michigan crude oil producers may therefore be minimal” the report later stated.
Michigan’s refining sector: Alternatives to Enbridge Line 5 for transportation found that there is enough capacity in existing oil pipelines to make up much of the potential losses at Detroit and Toledo-area refineries if Line 5 were decommissioned. The estimated increased cost to consumers would be a fraction of a cent/gallon.
“The Enbridge system has more than one route to Michigan and Sarnia,” wrote London Economics International. The report concluded that the cost of alternative routes “[W]ould amount to a rise of less than one cent (0.65 cents) to gasoline prices even assuming the refiners could pass along the whole price increase.”